The market is expecting a dramatic uplift in gasoline prices when the move to the more expensive summer grade occurs, a broker said. Summer specification gasoline is already rising in price in anticipation. Gasoline should also gain support from a Nigerian tender for over 600,000 tonnes in April.
If the forecast proves accurate, it will be the fifth week in a row that gasoline stockpiles have declined. A broker said that the arbitrage to the United States from Europe is now open for gasoline, which should help ease oversupply in Europe.
Other supportive factors include demand in the U.S., rumours of run cuts and weather delays in the Baltic due to ice, he said. This is causing some delays to naphtha cargoes coming from Russia to northwest Europe.
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European gasoline crack margins remained negative on Monday, according to Reuters data, as analysts forecast the full extent of the missing Libyan barrels will weigh on the market. "The market is only now beginning to realise the full extent of the missing Libyan barrels as the gravity of the situation was initially masked by maintenance with offline capacity in the Med seen at around 305,000 barrels per day for the first quarter," JBC Energy analysts said.
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